As anticipation builds ahead of the official announcement of the Oscar shortlists later this week, The Hollywood Reporter has released its latest predictions highlighting some of the strongest contenders for cinema’s most prestigious awards.
The forecast is based on a mathematical model by awards analyst Ben Zauzmer, which uses historical Oscar data, previous awards results, and statistical trends from the current awards season to predict likely nominees for the 2026 Academy Awards.
Best Picture: A Fierce Battle at the Top
According to the analysis, the leading contender for Best Picture is One Battle After Another, followed closely by Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein. All five films are expected to feature prominently on the shortlist, which is set to be announced on January 22.
Meanwhile, Sentimental Value and Train Dreams are also considered strong outsiders with a realistic chance of breaking into the final lineup.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads
In the Best Director race, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is currently the frontrunner. He is followed by Ryan Coogler (Sinners) in second place and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) in third.
Close behind are Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), who are seen as having similar—but slightly lower—odds.
Acting Categories: Star-Studded Competition
The Best Actor category is shaping up to be highly competitive, with several major names in contention:
• Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
• Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
• Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
• Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
For Best Actress, Hamnet star Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) currently lead the predictions.
Supporting Roles Could Decide the Night
In Best Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) tops the list, alongside Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly).
The Best Supporting Actress category is led by Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), with Amy Madigan (Sinners) and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) close behind.
With the shortlist announcement just days away, the Oscar race is already delivering drama, surprises, and intense competition—setting the stage for one of the most exciting awards seasons in recent years. 🎬🏆
