Analytics site FiveThirtyEight has calculated the probability of victory for all teams, as well as the chances of advancing to each of the next stages of the Champions League. This site calculates the probability of winning based on each team’s rating, which in turn is the sum of that team’s offense and defense ratings using a special formula.
In short, a situation is simulated in which a team plays against an abstract average team on a neutral ground, and based on that model, the number of expected goals scored and conceded is determined.
The results of different teams are compared with each other, so you can project the result of any game or even tournament.
Bayern have a 21 percent chance of winning the Champions League, according to FiveThirtyEight.
“This is the main favorite among all participants. And that despite the fact that Bayern entered a difficult group with Barcelona and Inter”.
In second place is Manchester City, who are given 18 percent of the chances, and third is PSG with 14 percent. Liverpool is fourth, and in fifth place is the current European champion Real Madrid, with an estimated 7 percent chance of winning the trophy.
However, it should be remembered that last year the same site gave the “Royal Club” only 6 percent of the chances, so less than this season, so in the end they won the title…
Barcelona, Chelsea and Ajax’s chances of winning the Champions League are rated equally at just 2 percent, while Juventus are given the same chances of winning the Champions League as Plzen and Maccabi or Dinamo Zagreb.
For many these statistics are meaningless and it’s really crazy to keep them relevant, because when the most important competition of the Old Continent starts, anything is possible. It has been proven countless times…
