Bitcoin’s Four-Year Halving Cycle Is Worthless, Says Hayes
Bitcoin, currently worth over $121,000, appears to be protected from a bear market in the coming months as supportive monetary conditions are expected to continue. This, according to Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, makes the traditional four-year halving cycle virtually worthless.
In an essay titled “Long Live the King!” published Thursday, Hayes argued that the primary cause of Bitcoin’s previous bear markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022 was monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. In each of these periods, Bitcoin’s price fell by 70–80% from its bull market peak, CoinDesk reports.
CoinDesk had expressed a similar view in 2023, noting that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, tied to the halving of mining rewards, is more influenced by fluctuations in fiat money supply and liquidity than by the halving events themselves.
- “As the four-year anniversary of this cycle approaches, traders are eager to follow the historical pattern and predict the end of the bull market,” Hayes wrote, noting that the four-year cycle has ended and that the large influx of fiat liquidity expected will keep the market rising.