In 2014, German economist Joachim Klement created a formula that predicted his country would win the World Cup that year. To his surprise and delight, attacking midfielder Mario Gotze scored the winning goal in the dying minutes of extra time in the final, giving Germany a 1-0 victory over Argentina in Brazil.
Clement’s formula predicted France to win in 2018 in Russia and Argentina in 2022 in Qatar – confirming the 100 percent success rate of his complex predictive model.
With the 2026 tournament just weeks away, Klement has named who he believes will win the title. This time he is backing a relatively weak team, predicting that the Netherlands will win the tournament.
The Netherlands have never won the World Cup, but were runners-up in the 1974, 1978 and 2010 finals.
Currently ranked seventh in the FIFA rankings, betting agencies generally place the Netherlands as the eighth favorite to win the World Cup, with Spain as the main favorite, followed by France and England.
“I was a little surprised when my model and simulations showed that the Netherlands would win. Especially considering that the simulation showed that the Netherlands has a very, very difficult path to the final,” Klement initially told SBS Dutch .
Netherlands national team
The expanded tournament and the road to the final
For the first time in World Cup history, the number of participating teams has expanded from 32 to 48. Hosted by Canada, the USA and Mexico, the 104-match tournament will take place from June 11 to July 19.
It will start with 12 groups of four teams competing, with the top two and eight best third-place teams advancing to the knockout stage.
In the group stage, the Netherlands will compete against Japan, Sweden and Tunisia, and the first match will be played against Japan on June 15 at the Dallas Stadium.
Klement predicts that the Netherlands will defeat Morocco and Canada in the knockout stage, as well as France in the quarterfinals.
“France would have a better chance of winning against the Netherlands because they are one of the best teams in the world at the moment. But on any given day, in any given match, luck plays a significant role and, in fact, about 50 percent of the result is determined by luck.”
According to him, the Netherlands would then face Spain in the semi-finals.
“If the Netherlands reach the semi-finals, it will be a situation where they already have a lot of confidence that they can beat anyone. I think it will be literally 50/50 whether you beat Spain or not, and if you beat Spain then the road to the title is open.”
Clement’s prediction
The formula behind the prediction
Clement’s formula predicts the final between the Netherlands and Portugal, which is known as the sixth favorite of the tournament.
His patented econometric model measures five factors for team success: GDP per capita, population, air temperature, FIFA ranking points and home field advantage.
“If you look at my model, it uses economic and climatic fundamentals to estimate how strong a team should be, and the closer the two teams are in terms of strength, the more luck plays a role in each individual matchup,” Klement explained.
